World problems? My mind ran to President Trump‘s Rubik’s Cube called Iran.
It’s as if Trump grabbed a pole cat and he can’t put it down or stop it from spraying him. Yes that’s a problem, seemingly without a solution of Trump’s making.
The president announced last week to the world that a military solution is no longer a viable option. He cannot send in troops and he’s run low on munitions, although he lies about that.
I’m quite sure that in Tehran, the generals and the clerics realized they had won the war and they’re going to use this time to rearm, to become stronger.
He said instead of using our military, he was going to rain down “Economic D-Day“ on the Iranians, destroy what’s left of their economy. He likes to name things. “Trump’s Economic D-Day?”
He then handed the job over to Scott Bessett, the secretary of the treasury who is not above repeating Trump’s lies with his own spin.
Bessent announced that he will severely sanction any country or person doing any business whatsoever with the Iranians. This he said will isolate them.
Sounds like a plan; it won’t work. Why?
Trump is a bully and he is afraid of China and Russia. He will push the smaller countries, but he will not push these two countries, and they are Iran’s lifelines. Without their cooperation, and he will not get it, sanctions will have very little effect.
They like Trump’s war. They see it as weakening the United States.
He sent his CIA director to Russia to talk of sanctions; he doesn’t want them to do business with Iran, but nobody knows what the discussion was about. Russia, however, closed the door on the emissary. It offered no cooperation.
With Russia, Trump has lost all of his leverage, particularly by not supporting NATO or Europe.
China was left out of a mention of sanctions by Bessent and it will continue to do business with Tehran as will Russia.
China buys lots of Iranian oil and sells it surreptitiously throughout the world. The United States is aware.
With these two lifelines, Iran will survive.
Trump will not take meaningful action against China or Russia if they do business with Iran nor will he attempt to stop any Chinese oil tankers, leaving or coming to Iran.
He’s afraid, frankly, of starting World War III. He should be.
As to China, if he tries to sanction it, he risks an escalation of the trade war. Our military and civilian manufacturers are desperate for rare earth minerals and these ores come from China.
Oh yes, they also come from Canada, a country against whom Trump, ever the bully, inexplicably has chosen to escalate a trade war. His timing could not be worse.
With a military solution off the table, by Trump‘s own admission, economic actions are a sieve, and the leadership in Iran, due to Trump’s war and the assassination of the ayatollah, has become more and more militant, with the civilian government loosing influence to the IRG, the stridently militant faction of the country.
These people do not care how much their civilian population suffers. They’re in this for a theological win. To advance the 1979 revolution. To prove something to the world and to gain followers. Trump has allowed them to project strength.
Trump has made a complete fool of himself before the world and incurred the ire of many American voters who had once supported him. He has pretty much guaranteed a Democratic sweep in November if the election is fair.
Republicans in Congress deserve to be removed. They simply have not done their job.
When the Iranians are good and ready to talk, they will again impose their conditions on Trump, and likely they will be harsher then what they imposed in the last round of discussions.
Trump will have little choice, but to accept, hat in hand.
A weaker America, billions of dollars spent for nothing, and a stronger Iran.
For now the only place for Mr. Trump to go is to crawl up under the Resolute Desk, suck his thumb and have a good cry; he has earned it.
The bell is ringing.
Jim Astrachan is lawyer who represents clients in intellectual property law and litigation, mediation, and business, regulatory, and transactional matters. He’s a Life Fellow of the Baltimore City Bar Foundation, the Maryland Bar Foundation, and the American Bar Foundation.