A farmer spreads liquid fertilizer on crops during planting season. The Trump Iran War is creating a shortage (Photo Wikideas1)
Fertilizer is on my mind this morning.
Not the kind of BS the administration spreads. But the type that is mixed into soil depleted of nutrients to produce crops for people to consume all over the world.
But first, it ought to be noted that this war was telegraphed to the Iranians for a very long time before the United States of Israel struck.
The Iranians are not stupid, and they were prepared. They knew this war was coming. We do a really great job blowing up buildings and killing people, including school kids, but so far we don’t seem to have stopped very much.
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Iran’s good stuff, their expensive and hard to replace stuff, that was located in their buildings blown up was, prior to the strikes, removed to hiden sites.
Fact is we’re not winning this war and the Iranians are still launching missiles and drones at critical targets, including gas production facilities.
Not only do they appear to have us by our economic throats — to be less crass than I could be — this war is costing a bloody fortune and the administration has asked Congress for another $200 billion with no plan disclosed to end this war.
We can’t afford it.
Many who know the Iranians well, who have studied them, who have lived in their country, believe this war will increase their resolve and that they will survive it. With their existence at stake, they may be inclined to build the nuke they were not inclined to build before the war.
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Add to that, we did sign the United Nations Charter, and it is our law as adopted. It does allow us to make war on Iran only if a threat to the United States is imminent. No one has established that’s the case.
To the contrary, the discussion so far appears to be the opposite. One might say that we are again engaging in war crimes. And one might also say this administration does not care. And one might say this is how this administration would like to treat court orders.
However, this began as a discussion about fertilizer, an essential product that is made with natural gas, the gas that comes from the world’s largest natural gas fields that Israel hit Wednesday in Iran.
Farmers face a double wammy as the cost of diesel fuel soars past $5 a gallon. Food costs are likely to soar as well. (Photo: USDA)
This is the attack Trump claims he was not aware was going to occur, and it was so serious that the Israelis have announced they’re not going to attack these gas fields again. (Note: The Israelis say Trump was briefed in advance and approved the attack.)
This attack has caused Iranians to attack gas production facilities in the region. No doubt there is more to come. Tit for tat. Economic leverage — 70% to 80% of the energy used to produce fertilizer to grow crops comes from natural gas.
I did not know that, and I doubt that you did either unless you are a farmer or a chemist.
Agricultural fertilizer relies heavily on natural gas as it’s primary raw material and energy source. That makes natural gas essential to the existence of the American agricultural industry.
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And, many overseas consumers depend on our agricultural exports, at least they did until Mr. Trump imposed obscene tariffs and they looked elsewhere to buy their crops, such as soy.
Natural gas is the primary feed stock for ammonia, and the building block for all nitrogen fertilizers, according to reports from the American Gas Association.
Abundant low cost natural gas affects the cost of food, globally. Sure, some natural gas is produced in the United States, but we all know what happens to price when demand exceeds supply.
With the attack on the Iranian gas fields and Iran’s counter attacks on the gas production facilities of other countries, coupled with restricted shipping of gas through the Strait, expect to see the cost of growing crops rise significantly this growing season that we are entering on the east coast and mid west.
This can result not only in higher cost for goods consumed, but also a shortage of food. It is quite serious.
This war and the attacks on the gas field has served to drive up the cost of gas and other fuels at a time when Americans were already pinched by inflation.
We need to eat, we need to be able to afford to eat, and we need to have enough food to eat. The United States agriculture industry is a huge consumer of natural gas, and each year and uses about 15% of all natural gas consumed.
These attacks and the resulting shortages will be adverse to our interests if continued.
Iran, for its part, is well aware of the effect of restricting the flow of natural gas to the United States and to the West. The cost and availability of crops will go up, and because of the increased cost of oil, the cost of delivering crops to market will also go up.
Did anybody notice the diesel is over five dollars a gallon?
Hitting gas fields was so highly controversial that the US pressured Israel not to do it again. But that won’t stop the Iranians from exerting whatever leverage they feel they have against the West, including attacking oil and gas fields and refineries in the Middle East.
They see this war as a survival of its religious and nonsecular government.
An illegal war with no end in sight, no disclosed objective, and a devastating effect on the economy and the deficit.
This must be the ‘’new winning?”
Campaign promises of no new wars and lowering gas prices have been smashed. Why?
Thank you for your attention to this matter.