Face off over the Strait of Hormuz. Which side will blink first? (Photo: NYI collage)
Donald Trump’s “lightning war” against Iran has bogged down into another quagmire, humiliating his “War” secretary and over-extending the military.
Fox News talking head Pete Hegseth was confirmed as Secretary of Defense days after Trump took office and talked tough right off the bat.
He asserted that the military should focus exclusively on “lethality and readiness,” bring “overwhelming force” to achieve clear objectives in any conflict, and reject “restrictive rules of engagement.”
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But 60-days into Trump’s unprovoked, surprise attack on Iran (Feb. 26), the president’s miscalculations, hemming and hawing and timid tactics have turned the war into a stalemate and debacle.
An explosion rocks downtown Tehran, Iran, during the opening salvo of the war. (Photo: Avash)
Hegseth’s jingoistic posturing early on looks clownish now. He’s been reduced to holding news conferences begging for help to clear the Strait of Hormu from Europe and NATO.
Iran still controls the Strait and holds the upper hand in the conflict, despite five weeks of bombing.
It’s well known conflicts are often surrounded by a so-called “fog of war.” But Trump has given new meaning to the term.
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He’s plunged the war into a thick pea soup of false pronouncements, shifting objectives and unintended consequences. He’s declared victory on social media or in speeches at least 12 times.
Trump has also offered contradictory versons about how the war would play out. Asked how long the United States and Israel intended to sustain its assault on Iran, Trump said “four to five weeks.”
The Dignified Transfer at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware of six U.S. soldiers killed in an Iranian drone strike, March 7. (White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
The Trump-enduced miasma has been so off the wall, Iran’s pronouncements began to look more credible.
In rapid succession, Trump, on March 21, threatened within 48 hours to target civilian infrastructure, such as power stations and desalination water plants, if no deal was reached.
Then, on Easter Sunday (Apr. 5), he renewed threats in an expletive-laden social media post, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranians would be “living in Hell.”
A day later, Trump warned that he would take out Iran “in one night and send the country back to the Stone Age in four hours. The next day he said the “whole civilization would die.”
Of course, none of that happened.
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Instead, on April 7, Trump finally agreed a two-week, Pakistan-facilitated ceasefire. Hours before it expired without a settlement, Trump extended the deadline indefinitely, giving Iran crucial breathing room to stall and rearm.
What began as a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with dubious results, has turned into a regional war. Thousands of deaths have been reported, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. Thousands more have been dislocated and the global economy is slowly collapsing.
Meanwhile, 13 U.S. soldiers are dead, more than 100 have been wounded, and U.S. bases have been damaged along with oil facilities among U.S. allies in the gulf.
Trump and Hegseth have also wildly overstated the military’s effectiveness.
U.S. and Israeli bombers have roamed across the country striking a reported 15,000 targets. Trump more than once claimed Iran’s navy, air force, air defenses and its horde of missiles and drones had been wiped out.
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Hegseth has hyped the military’s prowess, but at least 175 people, mostly children were killed when bombs hit a girl’s elementary school near a military facility due to a “targeting mistake.”
The school attack has become a symbol of U.S. and Israeli incompetence in the war.
Despite Trump’s pronouncements, Israeli and U.S. intelligence services say Iran’s supply of missiles and drones still number in the hundreds and perhaps thousands, and it continues to strike targets in Israel and the gulf states.
Iranian gunboats still threaten the shipping in the Strait and in a major humiliation, and F-15 fighter/bomber was shot down after Trump had declared Iran’s air defenses decimated.
The jet’s pilot and weapons system officer were rescued in dramatic fashion. But Hegseth and Trump have effectively erased the incident. The crew’s names, health and other details have been withheld in a total communications black out.
Almost 50,000 U.S. troops have been massed in the region since the war started, including elite units like the 82nd Airborne and Marine expeditionary forces. The troops are reportedly poised to seize the Strait, or Iran’s Kharg Island oil facilities.
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But Trump appears reluctant to do anything for fear mass casualties will provoke a sharp backlash domestically and further damage the global economy.
Delay has a downside all is own for the military. Keeping thousands of troops on station, either cooped up in assault ships or on vulnerable desert bases has a serious affect on moral and readiness.
In a glaring example of poor planning, Hegseth’s Pentagon underestimated the drain on U.S. weapons stocks and failed to take into account the effectiveness of cheap Iranian Shaheed drones.
High-priced Patriot anti-air missiles, costing millions of dollars, were used to shoot down the slow-flying $50,000 drones. Then, in a fit of pique, Trump refused an offer from Ukraine to provide low-cost drones designed to counter Shaheed attacks. Several gulf nations took up the offer.
Trump’s latest move to counter Iran’s blockade of the Strait, was to announce Apr. 13) a counter-blockade of Iranian ships and tankers. The move has turned the conflict into an economic war of attrition.
But there’s some question who will blink first.
In a Truth Social post last week, Trump proclaimed, “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately – Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”
But the war has caused a severe global energy shock, inflated oil prices, and increased global recession risks, according to an Goldman Sachs analysis.
Brent crude has jumped by over 40%, a massive disruption to oil and fertilizer supplies, fueling inflation and threatening global stagflation. Some European airlines report having only weeks of aviation fuel on hand.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that a recession is looming. It has cut its 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% while projecting it could tumble as low as 2% if the conflict persists.
If global oil shortages continue, major governments may have to impose “demand destruction.” Even higher prices and gas rationing could be next, unlike anything seen since gasoline shortages during the 1970s Arab oil embargo.
Oxford Economics has warned that these “scarring impacts” on prices and investment could last years after a ceasefire.
Iran is under economic pressure, too, but it could be weeks or months before it reaches crisis level.
The country has already moved enough oil through the Strait onto open waters to weather the U.S. blockade in the short-term, according to analysts. Around 183 million barrels of Iranian crude oil are on the water.
In the coming weeks, however, Iran could face a grain shortage. Nearly 70% of its grain imports flow through the Strait, posing a severe food security challenge.
The bombing has also inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s steel plants and war-producing factories, both sources of foreign currency. Inflation is taking a toll, rising from 49% to an expected 70%, and layoffs are rippling through the economy.
But Iran’s radical, idologically driven clerics and revolutionary guard (IRGC) still maintain an iron grip on the country and are likely to weather considerable hardship to maintain power.
The IRGC has “revolutionary ferver,” which means ‘they can tolerate pain for a lot longer than I think most American decision makers and planners calculate,” according to one former Middle Eastern diplomat.
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has dismissed Trump claims the Iranian military may be at odds with the political leadership, according to reports.
So far, neither side has yielded much in negotiations to settle the conflict, causing yet more delay.