Trump Wins by Painting Himself in a Corner of Looming Failed Expectations

Donald Trump could be crushed by lawsuits and criminal probes. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

Donald Trump won the presidential election on a sea of promises; will reality bite? (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

Donald Trump won the presidency on a shoeshine and promises. But in the process, he’s set himself up for monumental failure.

Much of the post-election analysis will focus how voters were willing to buy into Trump’s cynical vision of America — despite copious evidence to the contrary: a strong economy, receding inflation, low unemployment.

It’s enough to say he won, but the real test is how he will govern now that he is in power. Trump has almost automatically set himself up for failure.

In his scatological campaign, Trump pandered to voters with a slew of promises.

It’s classic Trump, the ultimate salesman; sell the sizzle, worry about the steak later. It’s been a hallmark throughout his career in business and politics.

He’s sold himself as a self-made success story, despite a string of business failures, a myth that was reinforced in the tabloids and ultimately a fictional reality television show.

Voters bought into it; but reality won’t.

The Achilles’ heel of his administration will be the slew of promises he made to voters: no taxes on tips, overtime and social security, a huge corporate tax cut, a 50-percent cut in oil prices and sky-high tariffs.

He also promised to deport 10 million immigrants, legal or otherwise, lower grocery prices, lower inflation, lower crime, end the Ukraine war, strengthen national security and dismantle the federal government.

But in reality most of his promises are contradictory, and will be impossible for him to keep.

Before the votes were even counted, his surrogate Elon Musk was already prepping the nation for what’s to come — “hardship,” economic turmoil, and a stock-market crash.

How long will that hardship last? As long as necessary, he told a town hall, according to media reports.

The backlash will likely be “fierce,” he said, but he dangled a carrot, a distant, ephemeral, long-term gain.

When Musk talks about hardship, he’s not referring to the rich or corporations, which are already lining up for another Trump tax cut. He’s talking about blue-collar workers and the middle class.

Musk says his role in the Trump administration will be to cut the federal government and ultimately balance the budget. But he apparently has no clue what that means, and neither do Trump’s voters.

In 2023, about two-thirds of the federal budget, $6.2 trillion, was spent on mandatory programs, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other social safety net programs. Another $659 billion was used to cover interest on the federal debt.

Only 26 percent of the budget, $1.7 trillion, is discretionary, the lion’s share of which, $857.9 billion, goes to national defense. Likely, that will be off limits, given Trump’s promise to maintain a strong military.

Musk estimates he’ll be able to cut about 30 percent of the federal budget, or $2.37 trillion.

As such, Trump will almost certainly have to massively cut social safety net programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, federal aid to education, and federal grants to state and local governments.

Those cuts will cause huge social dislocation. Massive government cuts in Argentina under President Javier Milei caused the poverty rate there to skyrocket by 50 percent in the first six months of his administration.

Trump promised not to cut those programs. He won’t be able to keep it.

Trump falls further down the rabbit hole with his promises to cut taxes on tips, Social Security benefits and overtime pay, reduce the corporate tax rate to 15 percent, repeal the cap on the state and local tax deductions and extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts.

In all, they would cost as much as $9.75 trillion over ten years, according to analysts.

Most of that cost will be layered on top the current $35 trillion national debt, which Trump increased by 25 percent during his first administration.

Trump’s corporate tax cut is a given and will be budget busting on its own, making it impossible to enact other promised cuts without new sources of revenue.

Trump’s solution is to impose sweeping, tariffs on imported consumer goods, up to 10 percent across the board and 60 percent on Chinese goods.

But they would raise only $2.8 trillion over 10 years, according to the Tax Policy Center.

To move forward with all of his promised tax cuts, Trump would be falling into a classic fiscal trap, resulting in higher deficits and debt, leading to higher inflation, according to experts.

Trump repeatedly lambasted Biden and Harris on the campaign trail for high post-pandemic inflation , but the inflationary spiral actually began with his 2018-2019 tariffs, according to the conservative Tax Foundation.

Consumers were saddled with nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes by Trump tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion. That’s equivalent to annual tax increase on US households of $625 — one of the largest increases in decades, the foundation noted.

The tariffs, mostly passed on to consumers, raised the price of autos, appliances and other consumer goods by 12 percent and the price of food and produce by nine percent.

Higher costs show up in the inflation rate, a lagging indicator, typically eight to 12 months later or slightly longer in this case because of the pandemic lockdown.

Tariffs also lead to other negative effects. The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates to offset price increases and US corporate profits would fall along with household incomes.

Lower projected corporate and individual tax revenues would offset nearly $1 trillion of increased tariff revenue, according to estimates.

At various times during the campaign, Trump said his proposed tariffs could replace the income tax, finance a $5,000 childcare tax credit and create a sovereign wealth fund, with enough left over to pay down the public debt.

None of that will happen based on tariff revenue alone, another failed expectation.

A repeated question during the campaign was how the candidates planned to address high prices for groceries, gas and rent.

Trump’s solution is to impose tariffs on imported foods and cut the price of oil by 50 percent in his first year, which he argued would lower the cost to produce goods across the board.

Trump might be able to incrementally lower the price by cutting regulations or opening up federal lands to drilling, energy analyst Patrick De Haan said in an NPR interview.

But because oil is a global commodity traded on world markets, “countries outside of the U.S. – like OPEC countries, Russia, Saudi Arabia – would likely offset any increase in U.S. production by cutting their own,” he said.

“Nobody’s going to be profitable at $35 a barrel, which is roughly half of where oil prices stand today.”

Trump’s Orwellian — some say fascist — plan to deport 10 million immigrants — both legal and illegal, some of whom have been here for years — will also produce drastic economic consequences.

The nation is already facing an acute labor shortage.

In October, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that employers had eight million job openings, compared with 6.8 million unemployed workers against the addition of 3.1 million new jobs in 2023.

Ripping 10 million non-citizens, who make up more than 19% of the workforce, out of the economy would devastate businesses. Farms and food processing companies, alone, employ 2.1 million non-citizens.

A dislocation to the economy of that size would not only lead to higher prices, but also shortages of goods and services nationwide not seen since Trump’s first administration.

This is not what his voters signed on for.

But given Trump’s long history of double-dealing and disregard for workers and the middle class, the nation is in for a harsh reality check that will force millions of families into poverty, while creating an elite plutocracy that will rival the Guilded Age.

Trump Wins by Painting Himself in a Corner With Promises He Can’t Keep